Tuesday, 27 February 2018

Camino Portuguese - Decisions! Decisions!

So many decisions to make on a long walk...which route option (never only one option on Camino routes)...how far to walk each day...where to stay...equipment...clothing etc. etc. One key set of decisions is around rain gear as there is nothing more enjoyable than walking in a steady downpour all day and finding that everything including your much anticipated change of clothes is soaking wet!

So...have a special waterproof pouch for my passport, money, cards...another one for my iPhone (iPhone 7 is water resistant which means it will be toast unprotected)...for clothing...for electronic plugs etc.

Add to this the key one rain jacket or poncho...after “in the field testing” which proved to me that a poncho is nothing more than a flying kite while trying to fit it over your head in rain I have opted for the rain jacket, matching rain pants (must always look sharp out there!), rain cover for the backpack, goretex shoes and if all else fails a garbage bag liner for the backpack.

So preparing or deciding not to prepare i.e. expecting no rain is important. After all this rain stuff adds weight...one must travel light!!!

Using my superb Google skills I found a site called www.worldweatheronline.com (sounds legit) which has the following forecast for Lisbon for the first 5 days or 122 kms of the walk.

The terrible forecast!!!
Over the first 5 days (using Lisbon’s forecast) we have an average 83% daily expectation of rain for a total of 124.3 mm. Well that’s not too scientific and pessimistic in that Lisbon weather is assumed for the 5 days! What if the rain starts in Lisbon and moves south...then we are OK!

Looking at the forecasts for the same 5 day period and refining the locations to be actual route stops we have an average 87% daily expectation of rain for a total of 129.3 mm. Fine...perhaps the weather forecasting is simply all wrong and/or the exact path we are walking simply misses the rain i.e. catch the perfect seam I am back to where I started...

Do I take all this rain stuff or simply rely on good judgment or gut feel and leave it all behind...travel light!

Decisions! Decisions!


  1. Hi Guy,
    Now you know why Architects make the big bucks!

    I should point out that the first decision should really engage the family of actuaries in assessing the probability and risk of rain. That should be the answer to whether or not to take rain gear. The architecture decision is what rain gear to take, factoring in both functional requirements (need to keep things dry, looking sharp, etc.) and non-functional requirements (how much rain to deal with, weight, pack ability, etc).
    Assuming the actuarial decision is to take rain gear, my architecture recommendation is to go with the full rain gear.

    My rev

    1. Greg, I'm having nightmares after reading functional and non functional requirements...never want to read one of those deliverables again...ever! My gut says...take the rain gear...my wishful thinking says...leave it behind! Have to go with the gut...which of course was where I was prior to even looking at the weather forecast :) Guy

  2. If everyone just went with their gut, why would we need Architects?

    Keep dry!

    1. Great question Greg. Why need System Architects...stumped!